Random data – Storage vs TDD – Jan 21, 2020

Difference in storage vs 5 yr average storage – weekly provided by RonH

The above is the difference between storage and 5 yr average storage. In 2015 existed a deficit in comparison to the 5 year average. During 2015, the storage deficit turns into a surplus in 2015/2016. A similar occurrence is happening now in 2019/2020.

Another way to look at this is to compare each build/draw to the each week of the 5 year average. This, to me, shows the consistency in build/draw of storage vs the average.

Weekly build/draw difference vs 5 year average – provided by RohH

HDD during 2015/2016 vs Long Term HDD averages provided by RonH
TDD during 2019/2020 vs Long Term TDD averages provided by RonH

I didn’t see TDD for 2015/16, so I am looking at HDD only. The significant swings in HDD and TDD can be see in storage around the same weeks for each year. I’m looking at this to get a comparison to the 2015/2016 plunge in pricing and compare that to storage. The dynamics of storage are what create swings in the market. The anticipation of over/under supply. Weather is the largest contributor to swings in demand, and swings in storage. Thanks to the colder than normal weather in Nov/Dec of 2019, storage kept fro building as fast as Dec of 2015.

It is impressive to me how similar a path pricing and storage is on track to compete with 2016. Prices could very well travel to $1.61 again as in 2016. I remember getting into trading ETFs around the week that NG prices bottomed out in 2016. At that time, I barely had an understanding of this market and what it was capable of. That being said, I can’t say right now feels any different for the better or worse. I know not to try and call bottom, and I know to be happy I’m not holding UGAZ, barf….

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